Speaker
Description
The aim of this study is to assess how changes in emissions can affect future air-quality in Central Europe, without consideration of changes in future meteorology conditions. In order to do so, two future scenarios were used (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the periods 2026-2035 and 2046-2055. We simulated the current and future air pollution levels using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem) version 4.4 and the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx) version 7.20.
So far, we have performed five simulations: one with present-day conditions (2010-2019) and four with future emission scenarios. Due to the large computing time, these four future simulations were run in the Karolina CPU after obtaining computing time in the 29th Open Access Competition, with the proposal title “Future air-quality changes over Europe driven by emissions”.
The present-day conditions were validated by comparing the model output with observed data for key pollutants, such as oxides of nitrogen, ozone and particulate matter. This validations points us to limitations in the models -such as incorrect monthly and hourly emission profiles, among others- that helps in comparing present-day and future emissions simulations.
To analyse the contributions of emission changes in air-quality, we computed several pollution indicators and seasonal averages for both present-day and future emissions simulations, and we computed the relative differences of these indicators. The results of this analysis shows that, in general, both seasonal averages and other indicators decrease in both RCP scenarios. Although there are intrinsic uncertainties to the modelling process, this research can help us understand how reductions in emissions can aid in improving air-quality.
